In 2019 Elon Musk promised that Tesla’s “robotaxis” without driver would have been traveling “next year”, but it didn’t happen. A year later, he promised to deliver them the following year, but it didn’t happen either.Despite the empty commitments, the promises continued to come. Last year in January, Musk said: “next year, we will have over a million robotasses”.
Would you satisfy you 10 or 12?
Musk seems to be on the verge of transforming his vision Robotaxi actually with a test of a small team of autonomous driving taxi to Austin, Texas, starting from Sunday. Reaching one million can take a year or more, however, although the billionaire should be able to expand the service this year if Austin’s demo is successful.
The stakes could not be higher, nor the challenges.While Musk was making those promises of “next year”, rival Waymo was committed to distributing taxi without driver to Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin and other cities using a different technology that allowed him to get to market faster. He has just completed his 10 millionth tour paid.
The boycott related to Musk’s policy have wandered Tesla’s sales. Rival electric vehicles manufacturers with recently competition models have a stolen market share. And investors are at the limit after a cancellation of $ 150 billion when Musk has taken a fight on social media with a President of the United States who supervises federal automotive regulators who could make the launch of robotaxi much more difficult. The stock resumed a little after Musk said he regretted some of his observations.
Tesla’s shareholders have been next to Musk over the years because he has challenged the chances by building a successful autonomous electric vehicle company – the autonomous driving car promises separately – and making them a lot of money in the process. A decade ago, the Tesla actions were exchanged for about 18 USDs. The shares closed on Friday at 322 USD.
Musk says that the Austin test will start quite modestly, with only 10 or 12 vehicles that collect passengers in a limited area. But then it will increase rapidly and spread to other cities, finally reaching hundreds of thousands if not a million vehicles next year.
Some mutal observers of Wall Street are skeptical.
“How quickly can the fleet expand?” Garrett Nelson, CFRA analyst. “We are perhaps talking about a dozen vehicles. It’s very small.”
Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein says Musk is Musk Classico: he promises too much, too quickly.
“When anyone in Austin can download the app and use a robotaxi, it will be a success, but I don’t think it will happen until 2028,” he says. “The tests will take time.”
Musk’s tendency to lift the stock high with a little hyperbole is well known among investors.
In 2018, he told Tesla’s shareholders that he had “financed” to buy all their actions to a huge prize and take the private company. But not only did he miss a written commitment by the financiers, according to the federal shareholders who fined him, had not discussed the amount of the loan or of other details with them.
More recently, Musk told the CNBC in May that Tesla was experiencing a “main rebound” required. A week after a automotive trade group in Europe announced that sales fell by half.
Musk was focused on presumably exaggerating the ability of the system used for his cars to drive oneself, starting from the name. Full guide is an improper term. The system still requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road because they may need to intervene and take control at any time.
Federal regulators for the safety of the highways opened an INF survey last year after several accidents and the Department of Justice conducted its probe, although the status of this is not known. Tesla also faced legal actions for the function, some that translated into settlements, others rejected. In one case, a judge decided against the complaints, but only because they had not shown Musk “consciously” made false statements.
Musk says that the robotassi will be running on an improved version of complete self -control and that the taxis will be safe.
He also says that the service will be able to expand quickly throughout the country. His secret weapon: millions of Tesla owners now on the streets. He says that an exaggerated software update will soon allow them to transform their cars into a driver without driver and to start a secondary activity while he has blocked himself in the office for eight hours or on vacation for a week.
“Instead of sitting your car in the parking lot, your car could earn money,” Musk said at the beginning of this year, calling it an Airbnb model for cars. “You will be able to add or remove your car from the fleet.”
Musk says that Tesla can also move quickly to distribute taxis now due to his decision to rely only on cameras to browse the car, unlike Waymo, who has traveled a more expensive road by integrating his cameras with laser and radar.
“Tesla will have, I don’t know,” Musk reflected in a teleconference with investors, “market share of 99 % or something ridiculous”. Given the advantage of Waymo and the potential competition of Amazon and others, dominating the driver without driver to that extent could be a scope.
But Dan Ives, a Wedbush titles analyst and a big Musk fan, says that this time Musk could actually do it due to Tesla’s ability to increase rapidly. And also the skeptics like Goldstein of Morningstar recognize that Musk occasionally does things well, and in a spectacular way.
He overturned the automotive industry by convincing people to buy expensive electric vehicles, he brought his Starlink satellite internet service in rural areas and, more recently, he performed a gee-Wiz makeup to land a pilot-free spatial rocket on a platform on Earth.
“Perhaps his timing are not realistic,” says Goldstein, “but can develop futuristic technological products”.
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