Will the US Bombing of Iran Actually Matter for Markets?

The “Nothing Ever Happens” Meme that has taken hold in Financial Markets

Before this week Facilites. The decision to join israel’s campaign against Iran marked an abrupt about-face from trump’s long-head Vow to keep the us out of oversas Conflicts, Especially In the Middle East.

Whatever the Geopolitical Motivation, Markets Have to Deal with the Possible Economic and Financial Consequences. Most notably, oil prices could spike if ran retaliates by halting shipments through the strand the straight of Hormuz.

But bourses in the middle East have rallied Sunday, John Brady, Head of Saves at Futures Broker RJ O’Briean, Wrote in a client note.

The tel -Viv market indexes have risen more than 1%. Kuwait’s Kwse Premier Index was up 0.40%, while egypt gained 2.67%. Qatar’s and bahrain’s indexes were fractively higher while the saudi market was fractively lower.

When Asian Markets Open Later, The “Nothing Evers” Notion may be put to the test. After Flinching Initially, Stocks and Bonds Globally Had Been Little Affected With Israel’s Initial Incursion.

As Peter Atwater Noted In His Financial Insyghts Note Published Late Last Week, Every Dip appears to have been bought by individual investors.

Threats, Such as the April 2 Liberation Day Tariffs Announcement that Sent Markets Plunging, Have Been Treated as Buying Oportunities. Even the market plunges following the covid collapse in 2020 Ultimately LED to New Highs, Atwater Added.

On that score, Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy At Academy Securities, Wrote in Client Note Sunday: “Stocks are likely to be under pressure (Probable Want to Buy the Dip.) IF TREASURIES OPAN lower [in price,] You want to buy higher yields hand over fist. “

Us Treasury Securities Typically Rally Rally during Times of Crisis as Investors Seek a safe haven. This may be a test if treasuries still hold that status.

As for Risk Assets, The S & P 500’s Roughly 20% Rebound from its april lows to within a few percent of Record highs highs leaves it is Susceptible to some seling on the Iran News. But if Dip Buyers appear, that would sugges that not even a sudden u-turn in Trump’s Foreign Policy Thrusting The Us IS INTO WAR means for markets.

Write to Randall w. forsyth at randall.forsyth@barrons.com