Titan to Kalyan Jewellers: is it wise to buy jewelery stocks amid Soaring Gold Pries? Explained

The rising gold prises act as a double-edged sword for jewelery stocks, as they can lead to inventory gains but dent demand and create pressure on the margins.

With Gold Pries Once Again Eyeing The 1,00,000 mark in the spot market, the spotlight is back on the jewelery companies like Titan, Kalyan Jewelers and Senco Gold, which have shown shown shown a mixed performance so far in 2025.

While The Market Leader Titan Has Gained 7% Year-TO-Date (YTD) AMID A 26% RALLY In Gold Pries, Other Top Jewelry Stocks-Kalyan, Senco and Motisons-Have Lost best 28% and 40%.

However, despite the mixed show, Analysts Remain Largely Positive on the Branded Jewelery Players. They believe that white-term outlook is hazy, these companies will continue to do well in the long run, give strong demand and a shifts organised players.

Will Rising Gold Pries Impact Jewelery Demand?

Sky-High Gold Pries Create a Complex Landscape for Jewelery Companies, said Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research, Ventura.

While High Gold Prisis Can Boost Revenue for Companies Dealing in Gold Jewelery Due to Higher Per-Un Sles Value, these also also suppress consumer demand for physical jewelery, particularly in Price-sensitive markets. In India, Jewelery Demand Slumped 25% Yoy in Volume in Q1cy2025, He observed.

However, despite the slump in demand, ICRA projects domestic gold jewelery consumption by value to continue to exhibit double-directive growth in fy2026, with an esteemated increase of 12-14%. This trend, ICra said, is similar to the price-driven expansion seen in FY2025, when the sector registered a 28% risk in value, larger attributable to a 33% surge in gold pricks. The current fiscal year is expected to follow a similar traffic.

According to jitin makkar, Senior Vice President and Group Head, ICRA, “ICRAI SAMPLE OF 14 Large Retailers-Representing Approximately two-Thirds of the Organized Market-Is Expected to Post Ravenue Growth of 14–16% yoy in fy2026. Fiscal is also expected to lend some support to demand, despite elevated prisles and declining volumes. “

These Estimates come, even as ICRA expests domestic gold jewelery consumption volumes to decline by 9-10% in fy2026, Following the 7% drop in FY2025. However, ICRA Added that Investment Demand (Coins and Bars) will remain resilient.

According to a Reuters Report, Quoting Cfo Ashok Sonthalia, Titan’s Jewelery Business, Which Accounts For Nearly 90% of Its Total Revenue, Is Expected To Grow Between 15-20% in Fy26 AMIDDEMANDFO FROM AFULON Indians.

Further explaining the impact of rising gold prices, boljinkar said, “Most Organized Jewellers Use Average-Cost Accounting, SO A Rising Gold Curve Fattens Reported Grots Margins Margins Margins Margins Plateau.

Q4 Snapshot

The bulish outlook by analysts is further driver by the organized jewelery sector’s robust Q4 fy25 performance, despite the record-hight gold price. Titan Company Led the Pack With A ~ 19% Year-On-Year Rise in Jewelery Revenue, while Net Profit Climbed 13% to 871 Crore. Despite Elevated Input Costs, The Company Maintened Its Double-Digit Ebit Margins and Announced Plans to open 40–50 new tanishq stores in fY26 to Deepen Its footprint Beyond Metro Cities.

Kalyan Jewellers Reported a 37% Jump in Revenue to 6,182 Crore, with pat up 36% to 188 Crore, Driven by a 25% SURGE in Same-STORE VALUE and Agrassive Expantion Across North and West India. Senco Gold, with a Strongold in Eastern India, Logged A 19% Increase in Revenue and An Impressive 94% Growth in Pat to 62 Crore. The company attributed its performance to vibrant Wedding-SESON Demand and a Higher Contribution from Diamond Jewelry, with non-east stores no accounting for 18% of total sales.

Regional Player Thangamayil Jewelery also also Saw Revenue Grow to 1,381 Crore with a Net Profit of 31 Crore, highlighting the resilience of rural demand amid rising gold prises.

Jewelery Stocks Outlook: Time to Buy?

According to Ca Jashan Arora, Director, Master Trust Group, Said That Many Players Have Shown Some Concerns About Elevated Gold Pries, Whoch Have Increased Working Capital Requirements and Intensified competition, particular from unorganized players.

“Despite these challenges, branded jewelers have shown resilience, Leverapping their reputation for quality and brand value to capture market share from smaller competors. Leaning Towards Organized Players, Along with a Strong Demand for Gold Jewelery, Paints a bright picture for the market. Growth a bit. This means investors should keep an eye on companies that have Solid Balance Sheets and Smart Hedging Strategies to Handle Any Short-Term Challenges, “Said arara.

He added that a possible drop in gold pris units, in fact, encourage retail purchases, boosting topline growth for jewelery for companys.

Sneha Poddar, VP – Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, also remains positive on jewelery on jewelery stocks amid rain disposable income, shift to organized Players and Demand for Demand for Regular-wait (Beyond Wedding and Investment LED).

“As per industry estimates, the jewelery market is expected to see 15-16% CAGR to Reach UsD145B by FY28, with Organized/Formal Market Likely to Deliver +20% Cagr to Reach 42-43% of the TOTAL MARKETE. Several Indian Jewelery Companies have Continued to Perform Well in Q4Fy25 Despite High Gold Pries, Suggesting a Selective Buying Opportunity in Jewellery Stocks with Preferences with Preference Security Brands with Scale and Balance Sheet Strength, “said poddar.

Commenting on which jewelery stocks to buy, boljinkar said companies like Titan Company Cold be a Strong Long-Term Bet. “The company has the largest market share in wedding and everyday jewelery, omnichannel. At 45X fy28 p/e, the stock looks optically expensive but justified by 20% Earnings Cagr and Strang Balancie Sheet, “He added.

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