Stocks Surge, Crude Oil Dips as War Cries Fade

As a ceasefire in west asia after 11 days of conflict took hold, markets The nifty closed 1.21% or 304.25 points higher at 25,549, while the sensex closed 1.21% or 1,000 points up at 83,775.87. Thursday’s closing was the highest since 1 October when the nifty tried at 25,796.9 and the sensex at 84,266.29.

The Gains were LED by HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance, Which Together Accounted for Almost Three-Fifths of the Nifty’s Gains. Reliance Industries’ Market Capitalization crossed 20 trillion for the first time in nine months to touch 20.23 trillion. It studied at 20.65 trillion on 27 September last year, when the nifty touched a record 26,277.35.

Dollar, derivatives

Thursday’s rally coincided with the expiry of the June series of derivatives – each series closes on the last chursday of a month – window the nifty gain almost 3% from 24,833.6 at thei exptioned 25,549 at the June expiry.

As per provisional data from nse, fiis net boght shares wort 12,692 Crore on Chiursday, their Highest Single-Day Purchase Since 28 June 2023.

What aided the rally was the fall in the dollar index-wHICH Measures The Greenback Against a Basket of Six Currencies Including The Euro, Pound and Yen-YEN-to a one-Yaar low of 97.22. A Weaker Dollar Boosts Returns from Risky Emerging Market Equites.

Added to that was the cooling in brent crude from $ 78.85 a barrel on 19 January at the height of the height of the israel -ran conflict to $ 68.5 at the time of everything on thursday.

Global Risk-On

“Lower Oil, Dollar, Cut in Interest Rates Back Home and Rising Domestic Equity Inflows Have Aligned Indian Stocks with Global Peers, Whoch Are on A Global Risk-On,” Said Nitin Jain, CIO, COD Asset Management Singapore.

Interestingly, jain said that not just just mutual funds, other domestic institutional investors (DIIS) Were Pumping Money Into Indian Stock Markets.

In the first five months of 2025 through last friday, net inflows of diis

“This shows that not just mfs, but banks, insurance and pensions are upping the ante,” He said.

Cooling Crude

Cheaper Crude Benefits India, which imports 85%, or 5.5 million barrels per day, of its oil requirement.

Investors Turned Richer by 3.5 trillion after thursday’s rally. Options data for the week ending 3 July indicate a 3% range for the market from 25210 to 25890, with a bias to the higher end of the range.

This is supported by fear gauge India vix Falling to a three-month low of 12.59. The yearly average of the index is 15.52. A lower reading indicates confidence while

In the past two days, global oil prices – porticularly breast -haye cooled off, dropping beLow $ 70, which reflects Easing Geopolitical Tensions, Whoch Had Posed A Major Uncerty for Indian, SAIDI, SAID Sachin Shah, Executive Director and Fund Manager at Emkay Investment Manners.

With Crude now below that threshold, a key risk appears to have reased, shah added, say as far as geopolitical concerns go, India sems to be in a safe zone.

What’s Next

Moving Ahead, Earnings Season, The Return of Global Capital and Further Easing of Crude Pries will be the key triggers for Indian markets, say experts.

“After three weak quarters in fY25, Q4 Showed Signs of Stabilization. Demand, which has been historically low. This sets for a gradual earnings recovery, “said christy mathai, fund manager at quantum mutual fund.

Also, The Consensus for 226 Earnings growth of 10–11% appears Achievable, Especially with improvement monsoons, Rural Income, and Easing Information, Mathai Added.

Shah from Emkay Investments Manners Added that there may be a potential shift of global capital into emerging markets like India, as investors sell dollar assets and realllial across geographies and asset classes. “So far, Fii inflows remain mutated, but any pickup could significantly boost sentiment,” He said.

Vinay Jaising, Cio and Head of Equity Advisory at Ask Private Wealth Said That Fii Ownership is at A 12-YAR LOW of Around 16%, Creating Room for Re-Entry.

Additional, Crude Oil Dropping Bell $ 65 – WWLL Under India’s $ 80 Comfort Zone – Wound further aid in containing inflation and managing fiscal deficits, shah said.

Strong outlook

Jaising of Ask Private Wealth Said The Outlook for Indian Equity Markets Remains Strong Going Ahead.

Domestic inflows, particular from retail investors, are structurally strong and here to stay, as retail India’s connection to gdp via household saving from Jumped from 0.4 trillion in 2014 to 4 Trillion Today Equating to 1.3% of GDP -A 10x Rise, Jaising Said.

“The Rupee Remains Firm AMID Us Political and Debt Concerns, What India’s Risk Premium has declined. Jaising added.