The Attacks from Washington Came Unexpectedly, AS President Donald Trump Had Stated On Friday That He Would Decide on a Potential Strike “Within The Next Two Weeks,” ROTHISING HOWES FOR APOTICES Window.
Escalating tensions Between Iran and Israel Sent Shockwaves Through Global Equity Markets Last Week, which was further interedated on monday. With the situation deteriorating further, investors are bracing for how the conflict may unfold, especially as equities are alredy under pressure from ongoing global trade wars and warnings from major International agencies about a potential Economic Fallout.
There are growing concerns that other counts may join the ongoing war, particular after Russia Had Earlier Warned The Us Against Taking Military Action.
Meanwhile, the trump administration has signed a willing to renew talks with ran and avoid a problem. In response to the surprise us striks, Iran has reportedly decided to close the strait of hormuz, through about 20% of the world’s crude oil passes-Pushing cruding crude personal Monday.
Iran also threatened retaliatory strikes against the us, with Supreme Leader Ayatlah Ali Khamenei Earlier Warning that Any Military Action Cold Cause “Irreparable Damage. Middle East Pose The Biggest Challenge for the Indian Economy, as the Country Meets Oover 80% of its Crude Requirements Through Imports.
If Crude Pries Continue to Rise – Alredy Up 13% SINCE JUNE 13 –T May Push Inflation Higher, Dampen Consumer Demand, Widen the Trade Deficit, And Strain the Fiscal Deficit and Budget Math. If Crude Oil Pries Continue to Be Elevated Over Longer Periods, It Cold IMPACT INCIA INC’s Profits as well.
Fertilizers, Diamonds, and Chemicals Cold see an indirect impact from the war
AMID Rising Crude Oil Pries and Geopolitical Tensions Between Iran and Israel, Crisil Rating Warns that CERTAIN Indian Sector Cold Face Profitability Pressures If the CONFLICTERE
While India’s Direct Trade with Iran and Israel is Minimal –under 1% of Total Trade –ky Sector Such as Basmati Rice, Fertilizers, DIAMONDS, and Chemicals May Still Feel the RIPPLE
Crisil Notes That Although Iran and Israel Togetra Account for Around 14% of India’s Basmati Rice Exports, The IMPACT on Demand is expected to be limited Due to the staple Nature of the Product and INDIA ‘ Diversified Export Markets. However, A Prolonged Crisis Cold Delay Payments and Strain Working Capital Cycles.
In the fertilizer sector, Israel Supplies Around 7% of India’s Muriate of Potash (MOP) Needs, But the Overall Exposure is low, and alternative Sourcing options. Similarly, India’s Diamond Trade With Israel – Mainly as a Trading Hub – Is Limited and Manageable Due to Alternate Routes through Belgium and the uae.
Downstream Refiners, Aviation, and Chemicals Face Cost-Pass Through Challenges
Crisil also highlights the Varying Impact of Rising Crude Pries Across Industries. While Upstream Oil Companies Stand to Benefit, Downstream Refiners, Specialty Chemicals, Paints, And Aviation Blad See Margin Pressure Due to Limited Ability to Pass on Costs.
Sector Such as Tyres, flexible packaging, and synthetic textiles-WHERE Crude-Linked Input Costs are High-May Manage Better Due to Strong Demand and Some Pass-Pass-Pass-Pass-Pass-Pass-Pass-Pass-Pass ABILITY, THAROTH ABILITY Lag.
“The Near-Term Impact on Most Indian Firms is Expected to Be Limited, Supported By Strong Balance Sheets and low Capex Intensity,” Crisil Said. However, it warned that “a prrolonged escalation could aggravate the impact, mainly through higher oil prisles and supply chain disrupties.” Crisil Added that it is Closely monitoring the situation and will assess credit quality implications cases by case if tensions escalate.
Disclaimer, The views and recommendations giving in this article are that of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We Advise Investors to Check With Certified Experts Before Taking Any Investments Decisions.
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