Nomura rays Nifty target to 26,140 for March 2026, highlights 17 high-conviction stock picks

In a Strong Endersment of India’s domestic macroeconomic stability and long-term structural potential, japanese brookeage firm nomura has revised its nifty 50 target upward by 1,170 points to 26,140 PONTS to 26,140 PONTY FOR March 2026. The significant upgrade comes even as global markets continue to grapple with lingering uncertainteies Around earnings downgrades, expert demand softness, and tighter finnacical Conditions.

Nomura’s new target implies a healthy 6 percent UPSide from Current Levels and Reflects Growing Investor Conviction that that India’s’s Equity Markets will Remain Resilient, Supported by Stepsy Resilients, Strong domestic liquidity, and macroeconomic discipline. The move also decompanies a curated list of 17 top stocks, with a pronounced tilt toward domestic demand-driven sectors.

“The Indian Equity Markets Have Been Resilient in the Recent Past Despite Corporate Earnings Estimate Cuts and Global Uncertaine. Yields and the relatively lower beta of Indian equities underpinned by consistent domestic flows, are supporting market valuation. Uncertaintiies implies that Equity Risk Premiums Remain Low, “said nomura in the note.

What’s driving the upgrade?

Nomura has based its upgraded nifty target on a price-to-earnings (p/e) multiple of 21 times fy27 earnings, up from the earlier 19.5 times. This upward revision in Valuation Multiples is Driven By Three Major Factors: Relatively low bond yields, Strong Domestic Equity Inflows, and Reduced Tail Risks on the macroeconomic from.

The brokerage noted that the Indian market is currently trading at 20.5 times one-yar forward earnings, which is close to the upper end of its three-yar trading. Despite this, nomura argues that the equity risk premium remains attractive. The Spread Between India’s Earnings Yield and 10 -Year Bond Yield is at -1.4 PERCENT, A Level That Still Lies Within The Accountable Band when Compared Historically.

Further supporting the bulish view, India’s economic fundamentals have remained broadly Intact. Nomura observed that inflation, crude oil prices, and interest rates are on a downward Trajectory – Developments that are likely to help preserve consumption momentum and contrasting external vulnerabities. While FY25 Earnings Growth Has Slowed to 8 Percent, Nomura Expects An Acceleration to 12 Percent in FY26 and Further to 15 Percent in FY27, which underpins the firm’s upgraded

Stock Strategy and Sector Preferences

In Its Latest Strategy Note, Nomura Highlighted 17 High-Conviction Stock Picks that Align With Its Constructive View on India’s Domestic Economy. The firm remains overweight on sectors that are primarily driven by internal demand. These include Financials, Consumer Staples, Autos and Discretionary Consumption, Oil and GAS, Telecom, Real Estate, and Select Power and Select Power and Healthcare Names Focused on the Domestic Market.

Financials stand out as the top pick, driven by their low earnings Volativity, Attractive Valuations, and Improving Return Ratios. Nomura sees banks as key beneficiaries of India’s investment and consumption cycles.

Convercely, The Brokerage Has Turned Cautious on It Services, Cement, Metals, and Certain Export-Oriented Pharmaceutical Names Due to Global Demand Weakness, Input Cost COST PRESSURESSUSUSUSUS As potential US tariffs on Indian drug expenses. However, nomura views any correction in pharma stocks as a potential options, assuming that companies can eventually pass on costs and preserve profits.

The tilt toward domestically-focused companies reflects nomura’s expectation that India’s growth story over the next 18-24 months will relay more on more on internal engines –Namely infrastructure devils, URBAN Consumption, and Policy Continuity – That on External Trade Dynamics.

Staying Consistency with its preference for domestic-oriented themes, nomura has related a curved list of 17 high-conviction stock ideas. Among Large-Cap Names, The Brokerage Favourrs Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Godrej Consumer Products, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & TOUBORO, CG POWRO, CG POWERES Tata Power, and Macrotech Developers (Lodha). In the small and mid-cap space, its top picks include federal bank, Marico, Dixon Technologies, Uno Minda, Ge Vernova T & D INDIA, Lupin, Medplus HeALTH SERVICES, And Dr. Lal Path Labs.

Risks on the Horizon

Despite the optimism, Nomura is not dismissing macro risk. The firm across the outlook is still clouded by challenges including weak investment Momentum Outside Government Capex, Fiscal Consolidation Pressus, Low Househld Finanic Savings, and Sluggish expense recovery. Additional, Valuations are elevated, Making the Market Vulneable to Earnings Disappointments or Geopolitical Shocks.

However, nomura emphasized that these risks are manageable withsin the current environment, and any meaningful correction would present a buying options for long-term investors.

For investors, this is a timely cue to rebalance portfolios towed resilient, fundamentally strong businesses that Cater to the India Growth Story.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made about individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We Advise Investors to Check With Certified Experts Before Making Any Investments Decisions.