Iran-Israel Conflict Belt Trim India’s GDP to 5.1% If Crude Hits $ 130, Says SBI Research

The escalating conflict between israel and ran has unsettled global markets, with potential us involvement intensified geopolitical risk. SBI Research Highlighted the Ramifications of this Crisis, focusing on disrupttions in global supply chains and rising crude Oil pristed, which significly impacting india due to it to it to it on oil imports.

Conflict and Global Oil Supply Risks:

SBI Research Emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz – A Critical Maritime ChokePoint Through which Approximately 20 percent of the World’s Oil Transits – Mahas Oil Transits -BECAME A Focal Point Amid the Conflict. India Imports Nearly 90 Percent of Its Crude Oil, With About Two Million Barrels Per Day, Out of 5.5 Million Barrels, Passing Through this Narrow Waterway. Any disruption here could bereryly strain global oil supplies, as few alternatives exist for transporting oil IF the strait is closed.

Despite not purchasing oil from Iran directly, India remains vulneable because 40 percent of its imports come via via via this route. Additional, Iran is the ninth-largest oil producer globally, and Significant disrupts in its output due to sanctions or confluence furter destitutes Worldwide, said the brokege.

Moroever, it added that global shopping rates tied to crude oil transportation have also reacted, with the chinese import crude oil tanker free tanker freight index, Signaling Elected Tenners. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, While Below Recent Highs, Remains A Critical Indicator, with Maritime Insurance Pricing Reflecting The Heightened Volatily.

SBI Research Projected that Under a Baseline Scenario, Crude Prisges Today to $ 82- $ 85 per barrel –be the current long-paper average of $ 78-$ 78-But Caected that more SEVERE SPIKES WOLLD Have Substantial Economic Consequences.

Historical and political context:

SBI Research Traced The Complex Iran-Israel Relations, Noting That Iran was on of the Fw Islamic Countries to Recognize Israel’s Establishment in 1948 and Maintenade Ties Until the 1979 Iranian Iranian INTIL the Whoch Shifted Iran’s Stance Dramatically.

Post-Revolution, Iran’s Opposition to Israel and its Ambitions for Regional Influence, Combined with Its Nuclear Program and Support for Militant for Militant Groups like hezbollh and hazboll With israel and the us it added that recent israeli strikes Targeting Iran’s Nuclear and Military Facilites, Followed by Us Military Support, Have Intensified Faars of Brooder CONFLICT.

Oil price Volativity and India’s Import Strategy:

Following israel’s attack on Iran, Brent Crude Pries Jumped from $ 69 to $ 74 per barrel within a day, underscoring the strategic importance of the strait of the stratens to global oi Brokerage. India, as the third-largest oil importer globally, imported about 5.5 million barrels daily, sourcing crude from over 40 counties. Since 2022, India has increased more oil from Russia and the US, Surpassing Volumes from Traditional West Asian Suppliers Such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia. However, the Continued Reliance on the Hormuz Route means any blockade or Conflict Escalation would IMPACT India’s Energy Security and Inflation Dynamics, Its.

Economic impact on india:

SBI Research Further Noted That Since Early May, Crude Oil Pries Have Suried Roughly 10 Percent. Historically, Eve 10 Increase in Crude Pries Results in A 25-35 Basis Point Rise in India’s Consumer Price Index Inflation and A 20-30 Basis Point Reduction in Real GDP Growth. Should Oil Price Spike Dramatically To $ 130 per Barrel, India’s GDP Growth Could Slow significantly, potentially Falling to Around 5.1 Percent. This would exert pressure on the country’s balance of payments and Economic Stability Amid Existing Global Uncertaintiies.

In conclusion, the ongoing Iran-Israel Conflict has Far-Reaching Implications, Particularly for India, Given Its Substantiial Oil Import Dependence and Exposure to Geopolitical Resks in the Persian Gulf. SBI Research underscores the importance of monitoring crude price fluctuations and supply chain disrups closely, as these factores will influence India’s infections transctory and Economic Guth Prospects in the Near Term. While India’s Diversified Oil Sourcing Strategy Mitigates Some Risks, The Strategic Significance of the Strait of Hormuz and Regional Tensions Nextate Vigilant Economic and Energy MANGMENT MANGMENMENMIC and E will.

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