Famous electoral strategist Prashant Kishore is full of confidence when he predicts the assembly elections in Bihar. Prashant Kishore started his Jansuraj campaign on 2 October 2022. As part of this campaign, he has visited from village to village in Bihar and is now ready to participate in the election in the name of Jansuraj Party. Prashant Kishore also keeps talking to the media in between and makes claims that surprise people.
Prashant Kishore has claimed many times that if his party wins 130 to 140 seats in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, it will be a big defeat. However, Prashant does not say how many seats he is guessing. Meaning there is a huge defeat in 130 to 140 seats, so is his party going to win 160-170 or more seats this time in the assembly elections!
Although he said anything on this, then only anticipation can be made. But if you look at Bihar’s electoral politics of independence, then PK claims nothing more than psychological eruptions. This can be an attempt to fill positive energy in its workers. Nothing more than this. Because only one leader has been able to get about 72 percent of the seats in Bihar. He is the leader Karpoori Thakur. In the Bihar assembly elections in 1977, the Janata Party led by Karpoori Thakur won 214 out of 324 seats in United Bihar (today’s Jharkhand).
There were many reasons in Karpoori Thakur’s victory
It is also worth noting that this act of the Janata Party then included all factors like the anti -Congress wave, the popularity of legend leader like Karpoori Thakur, Bihar movement. Prashant Kishore’s party does not have any such factor yet. Nor is he a support base like Karpoori Thakur and does not show anti-incumbency like the 1970s in Bihar. Yes, 20 years of Nitish Kumar’s rule and his ‘camp-Badal’ have definitely created a confusion among the general public. The result was also seen in the 2020 assembly elections. But this is not an Emergency -like atmosphere in 1977.
Later Congress also won a lot of seats
It is not that Karpoori Thakur had brought more seats in Bihar. The 1980 and 1985 assembly elections Congress also won 196 and 169 seats. But Prashant Kishore is seeing so many seats as his ‘very big personal defeat’. Therefore, comparison can be made with only one election result and that election is from 1977. When any one party got as many seats, perhaps Prashant Kishore is thinking as many seats.
Political experts also believe, PK claims ‘psychological strategy’
Prashant Kishore’s claim is also seen by political experts only as ‘psychological claims’. Political expert Dr. Sanjay Kumar says-Prashant is coming to contest elections for the first time on the ground. They do not even have any major social engineering. If he wants, he can also make 243 seats, but the truth is that when he ralled in Gandhi Maidan in Patna, most of the chairs remained vacant. Meaning people did not even come to listen to them. On this, PK argued that the administration did not allow our people to reach. But his claim flopped because later reports went on that the streets were not stopped in this way.
Sanjay Kumar says-For the victory, the factor is needed, that is, PK does not fit in the politics of Bihar. Bijpi calls them ‘Paisa-Kishore’, they have corporate money and through funding they make their people politics. RJD accuses PK of ‘Savarna mindset’ by saying ‘Pandey’. The third important thing is that the people who are rightly associated with them could not stand. People like Devendra Yadav, Monajir Hasan, Rambali Singh Chandravanshi, Anand Mishra joined. But these people do not stand.
PK could not win a single seat in by -elections
Sanjay Kumar says- ‘Prashant Kishore contested the by-election and could not win a single seat. PK connects people with some possibilities with every assembly. People who have their ability to bring 5-10 thousand votes. But there is a Democratic way of running parties, perhaps people separate due to not being. Yes, it is true that the clips of PK’s speeches during the journey go viral on social media. But to win 130 or 140 seats, to win, you need a hold and vote share on the ground, which is not visible yet.
‘It is a good thing to talk about burning issues. People listen to this. That is a different thing. But they do not have the social combination for politics. The capable people are leaving together. At the same time, PK also says that he does not believe in revolution like Jayaprakash Narayan. So how will such a large number of seats come? It is almost impossible to get so many seats by counting the flaws of governments.
Sanjay Kumar recently also mentions the C Voter Survey in which Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the first choice as the Chief Minister, while the trust of women has been maintained on Nitish Kumar. Kumar says that no matter how small the sample size of the survey was, if Prashant Kishore had been in the race, he would have made his place.
Prashant seeking votes on his face for the first time
Prashant Kishore has also been saying in his interviews, he knows how to contest elections. He has also been telling all his successes. In West Bengal, he has also mentioned his claim to stop BJP at less than 100 seats. But the difference between the elections of other states and Bihar elections is that he himself is the main face this time. They have to ask the public on their own face.
However, Prashant is very confident about his claims and the real results will be revealed only after the election results come. But the number of seats he is claiming, it seems an exaggeration that is to boost the morale of his workers.
Bihar has NDA on one side and India alliance on the other side. Both have their dedicated vote bank. Despite this, no party has yet achieved the figure in both the alliances which Prashant is calling his defeat. Whereas both alliances have leaders like Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav who have been at the peak of their popularity at different times. It will be interesting to see how much Prashant can fulfill his claims. Because his electoral performance in Bihar will decide the future of the Janasuraj Party.
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