Hindalco Industries Ltd Ended FY25 on a Strong Note, Reporting a consolidated ebitda of 9,600 Crore for the March Quarter (Q4FY25), up near 40% year-on-yar. While Its India Aluminum Business Delived Stellar Margins, The Global Subsidian Novelis Continues to Lag, Keeping Investors Cutious.
The India Upstream Aluminum Segment Reported an ebitda margin of 47%, with ebitda per tonne at $ 1,684, up 74% on year. This performance wasn’t just cyclic; Hindalco has strengthened its structural cost advantage through backward integration and Resource Security, Including the Commission of Captive Coal Mines like Bandha and Chakla.
The management expects upstream aluminum costs to remain flat in Q1fy26, Despite Rising Calcined Petroleum Coke Prices, as Coal Pries have styed stable.
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Downstream aluminum volumes were steady, but an improved product mixed ebitda per tonne risk 46% to $ 240. The management is targeting $ 250-300 per tonne as new lines at aditya frp and silvassa ramp up in fy26.
The copper business, however, was a drag. Who Rod Volmes Held Steady, Weaker Treatment and Refining Charges Pulled Down Segment Ebitda by 21% Year-On-Year To 614 Crore. The company expects a stable 600 Crore Quarterly Run Rate in the Near Term. Over the long term, improving demand conditions should support support at the London metal exchange and Aid India ebitda.
Novelis remains a concern, thought. Ebitda per tonne rose 22% sequentially to $ 494, breaking a three -Quarter streak of declines. But Volmes Were Flat at 957kt, and Year-On-Year Margins Remain Under Pressure.
Auto Demand Remains Soft AMID Uncertainty Over Us Tariffs, While Elevated Scrap Prists have Continued to Weigh on Profatiability. In this context, the management has refrained from isesuing Near-Term Guidance. That said, there early signs that recent cost and portfolio actions are yielding results.
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Analysts at Pl Capital Remain Cautious, Noting That Novelis’ H1Fy26 Cold be impacted by tariffs and a weak macro environment. They expect demand and margin conditions to improve as the US negotiates trade deals with the rest of the world.
For now, the brokerage has mained its novelis ebitda per tonne estimates for fy26-27 at $ 440-480 Till there is some visibility on the benefits of efficient scrap sorcing by.
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With 7,187 Crore in Net Cash in India and a Capex Plan of 7,500–8,000 Crore for FY26, Hindalco is Well-Funded for Growth. Investors will be watching to see if novelis can deliver staff earnings in a challenging global environment. The Hindalco Stock is up Around 9% So far in 2025. While India Continues to Drive the Narrave, a Steadier Novelis could be the catalyst the market is waiting for.
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