For Steel Companies, Q4 was an inflexion point as price, demand firm up

While Realization Remained Under Pressure, Price Started Climbing from March, In Anntikipation of the Safeguard Duty, Announced in April.

The combined ebitda of the four integrated steel players, JSW Steel Ltd, Tata Steel Ltd, Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) and Jindal Steel & Power Ltd (JSPL) ROSE ONLELY MARGINALY MARGINALY MARGINALY MARGINALY MAREGINALY MAREGINALY Quarter.

This, however, marks a significant improvement after a decline of 14% in Q3Fy25. What’s more, Firm Steel Pries and A Decline in Imports are expected to Further Improve Their Their Profitability Moving Ahead.

Average Realization in Q4Fy25 For Steel Producers Declined by 9% Year-On-Year, Lower Than the 11% Decline in Q3Fy25. Flat products producers, which accounted for 95% of imports, suffred the most. Despite the Lower Realization, Profitability was supported by Lower Raw Material Prists with Benchmark Australian Coking Coal Pries Averaging About $ 200 Per Tonne In Q4, ALMOST 40% Lower Lower Yaar-O-O-O-Over-Over-O-Over-Over-O-Over-Over. Whereas Domestic Iron Ore Pries Declined by about 7%.

Raw Material Prists have remained subdued in Q1fy26 Till Date with Coking Coal and Iron Ore Pries down about 23% and 11% year-or-yaar, respectly, in the International Markett.

Strong Volume Growth of 10% also also helped cushion the impact of lower realization during the Quarter. Domestic Demand is expected to remain strong, with the world steel association projecting India’s Steel Demand to Increase by 8.5% in 2025, on Top of 8% Growth in 2024, and Against a Global Growth of 1.3%.

However, the subdued pricing Environment LED to Sharp Moderations in Investments, With the Sector’s Capex Growing by 2% in FY25, A sharp decline from 22% in fy24, as per a nuvama invitational ownership Q4Fy25 Earnings review report.

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Bright future

The outlook for the industry remains strong with average flats prices moving up by over 7% sequentially in q1fy26-to-date to 52,000 per tonne, after the impression of safeguard duty. While this is still lower by about 3% year-on-year, the industry expects prices to firm up further after the monsoon.

Steel importants have also also also dropped by 21% in April, reflecting the impact of the safeguard duty, as per provisional joint plant commissione data. The Nuvama Report Projects Steel Industry Companies to Report Strong Earnings Growth of 20% in FY26 Against 5% in FY25, with Revenue Growth of 8% Against 3% in FY25. Among the outperforms are sail and jsw steel with projected earnings per share growth of 38% and 31%, respectively.

Amid the improving outlook, sail and tata steel shares have gained 18% and 16% so far in 2025, respectively. JSW Steel, Weighed Down by the Supreme Court’s Verdict on Bhushan Steel, is up at a smaller rate of 7%. Steel and Raw Material Price Movement will determine the performance of stocks in the coming months.