Dalmia Bharat is in a Sweet Spot on Pricing, but will demand play along?

Even as demand in these areas remained patchy, price rose by 35 per bag and 12 per bag, respectively, over the March Quarter (Q4Fy25) Average, only seeing marginal rollbacks in June, as per pl capital. This is Remarkable, Especially Given Early Monsoons This year and a general muteed consumption backdrop in the east.

For Dalmia, which has brought 80% of its capacity concentrated in these two zones, the pricing uptick is good news. In a report on 26 June, pl capital said it estimates an ebitda per tonne jump of 200–250 sequentially, pushing it closer to the 1,100 per tonne mark. That’s a solid recovery from the 819 ebitda per tonne it managed in fy25, a year married by falling realizations and flat volumes.

A large part of this confidence stems from the management’s continued focus on cost efficiencies. A targeted 150-200 per tonne savings over the next two years, through Higher Renewable Energy Mix and Lower Logistics Costs, Could Strengthen Margins even if prices don’t styvated. About Half of these Savings are expected to Materialize in FY26.

Volume Growth, however, continues to be a sore spot. Despite the company’s aspirations to outpace the industry, actual volumes have stagnated at Around 29 Million Tonnes (MT) for the Last Two Years.The MANAGEMENT, In Its Q4FY25 CALALL, have of Clear of Offering any specific Volume Guidance for Fy26, Choosing Intead to Focus on Striking a Balance Between Growth and Proftiability.

A meaningful Pickup will depend on post-monsoon demand and easy supply imbalanses, particularly in the East, where demand has no beed weak for five CONSECUTITERS.

Kotak Institutional Equites Expects Industry Demand to Recover to 8% and 7% in FY26 and FY27 after a Tepid Fy25, Largaly Due to Elections in H1FY25.

“Organic Expantion Plans Sugged An 8% Capacity Addition for the Industry in FY26

Meanwhile, Dalmia isn’T shying away from expansion plans. A 3,500 Crore Investment to Add 3 Million Tonnes Per Annum (MTPA) Each Via Greenfield Expantions at Pune and Belgaum is underway. That will push total capacity to 55.5 mtpa. The Eventual target? A mammoth 75 mtpa by fY28, and 110–130 MTPA by FY31.

To get there, Dalmia May Need More Than Just Greenfield Builds. The company has re-entered the race for jaiprakash associates The stakes are higher this time, and so is the competition. Winning the deal would accelerate dalmia’s capacity Ambitions but also saddle it with non-core assets it will have to divest Quickly.

For now, the company is set to be a key benefit of higher prices in the southern and eastern regions in h1fy26. “Incorporating Recent Price Increases and Annual Report 2025, We Upgrade Our EBITDA Estimates by 4.4% and 6% for fy26 and 27. Over fy25-27e on low base of fY25, “said pl capital.

Dalmia’s Shares Hit A New 52-White High of 2,217 Apiece in Early Trade on Friday. The stock trades at 11.8x ev/ebitda based on fy27 estimates, which isn’T exactly cheap. But if Dalmia can pull off its Volume Comeback While Sustaining Price Momentum, there could be further headroom for valuations to expand.