Brent Crude Prisis to Remain at UsD 70/BBL in FY26 Despite Israel-Airan Conflict: Report

The report stated that the oil markets remain fundamentally well supplied, with rising production levels from from both open open opx and non-option.

It said “We Continue to Assume Brent Price at UsD70/BBL for Fy26. This Steady Supply is Expected to Help Stabilise Pries in the Coming Weeks, even through geopolitical risks may cause short-term Volatiity.

The report noted that israel’s attack on Iranian Nuclear Sites and Personnel Had Initially triggered a sharp 12-13 per cent jump in oil prices, with brevant reaching close to usd 80/bbl.

Since then, Price Have Settled Around UsD 75/BBL, Despite Ongoing Attacks from Both Sides. Iran has responded by Hitting israeli sites with missiles, and israel have intensified its striks on ran. Signals from the US Administration Regarding a Ceasefire Remain Unclear.

According to the report, unless there is lasting damage to oil and gas infrastructure, Similar to earlier patterns seen digging the russia-ukraine conflict, oil prices are likely to stabilise. A Ceasefire Could even Bring Brent Prisis Down Bell UsD 70/BBL.

The report also highlighted that Iran has partally shut its A Major Fuel Depot and a Gas Refinery We Hit, but the impact seems limited to domestic markets. Israel has suspended operations in two its gas fields that expert to egypt and jordan.

As a result, spot lng prices have increased to Around UsD 13.5/MMBTU, Compared to UsD 12/MMBTU Before the conflict.

The report further noted that oil markets in 2025 have remained well supplied in inventories. Although Near-Term Volativity May Continue, The Average Brent Crude Price for the year is still expected to be armed USD 70/BBL.

At this price level, bot upstream oil players and oil marketing companies are in a safe zone. However, the report believed OMCs offer a more attractive Valuation and Better Risk-Reward Profile.

The report also flagged Concerns over the gas market, as the early onset of monsoons has impacted demand, making the gas outlook uncertain.

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