Axis Securities Raises Nifty Target to 26,300 for March 2026; Top Stock Picks Include HDFC Bank, SBI, Anders

Axis Securities Revised Its Nifty 50 target upward to 26,300 for March 2026, Citing Robust Earnings Visibility, Improved Market Sentimen, and Strong Macroeconomic Fundamentals. The brokerage said that white the broader market witnessed significant recovery post the lows of February 2025, near-term consolidation is likely due to global economic uncertainties. The firm maintained a bullish outlook on domestic-facing sector, while advising caution on expert-oriented businesses in the wake of ongoing global trade policy shifts.

“India Remains a Haven Amidst Global Volativity, and with Suportive Domestic Cues, We Believe The Nifty is Poised to Deliver Double-Dual-Digit Returns Over the Next 2-3 years,” Axis SACURITIES SAIDES, ”AXIS SACTIES SAID While Near-Term Consolidation is likely, the focus will remain on selective positioning in largecap, domestically-driven sector that offer batter risk in the current climate.

Market Recovery and Broader Trends:

According to Axis Securities, The Indian Equity Market Experienced A Notable Rebound Starting March 2025. The nifty 50 gained 12 percent from its februry lows, Whilele the Midcap and Smalycap Indicap indicaps 20 percent and 22 percent, respectively. The rally was attributed to factors such as Q4Fy25 Earnings Aligning with Expectations, Positive Trade Agreements, Easing Geopolitical Tensions, and A Supportive Macroeconomic Setup for26. The last one month alone Saw the smallcap index rising 9.6 percent, the midcap index up 6.1 percent, and the nifty 50 inch up by 1.7 percent. “The Market Breadth Improved Substantily in the Last Three Months,” Axis Securities Said.

Macroeconomic Risks and Strategy Shift:

Despite the rebound, axis seconds noted the presence of lingering macroeconomic challenges, include policy uncertainty with the us and China, Slovering Global Growth, Movement in Us 10-IEAR BOND Yields, and Volatily in the Dollar Index. “These risks will influence market direct and valuations in the short term,” The brokerage said, adding that markets may consolidate in the river term with narrow participation. Axis said it is adopting a strategy focused on style and sector rotation, especially Favouring Domestic-Facing Sectors, Given their Insulation from Reciprocal Tarifs.

Valuation and sector prefererances:

Axis Securities Pointed Out that Largecaps Offer Better Value Compared to the Broader Market, where the Margin of Safety is currently Lacking. “We believe quality stocks, market leaders, and monopolies from domestic-oriented sector are well-postioned to outperform,” Axis Securities Said. The brokerage is overweight on Largecap Private Banks, Telecom, Consumption, Hospitals, and Interest-Rate Proxies. It also upgraded its view on retail consumption and FMCG stocks based on FY26 Recovery Expectations. Meanwhile, it continued to underweight it stocks due to expected us discretionary spending cuts.

Portfolio changes and tactical adjustments:

Reflecting shifts in Market style and risk appetiite, axis seconds made one change in its top picks – booking profits in dalmia bharat and adding sansera engineering. “This Reflects Our Tactical Pivot Towards Higher-Quality Plays Amidst Ongoing Market Transition,” The brokege noted.

Nifty target roll -over and valuation framework:

Axis Securities Rold Forward Its Nifty Target to March 2026, Raising it to 26,300. The upward revision is based on Improved Market Sentiment, Easing Tariff Concerns, and Better Earnings Prospects for FY26. “We now value the nifty at 20X mar”27 earnings, up from 19x earlier, Factoring in Favourable Index Changes like the inclusion of broitannia and bpcl,” Axis Securities Said. It expects nifty earnings to grow at a cagr of 14 percent over fy23–27, Driven larger by financials.

Bull and bear case scenarios:

In a bull-case Scenario, Axis Securities Sees The Nifty Touching 27,600 by March 2026, Valuing it at 21x Mar”Ar’27 Earnings. This outlook is predicated on a “Goldilocks” Environment with Reduced Global Volativity, A Soft Landing for the US Economy, and a revival in private Capex Under a Stable Policy Regiment. Convercely, in the bear case, axis pegs the nifty at 22,300, based on a 17x Valuation Multiple. “Challenges Such as High Interest Rates, Currency Volativity, and Trade Disruption from Potential Trump-Re Policies Cold Drag Drag Down Valuations,” Axis Securities Warned.

Top Stock Picks:

Aligned with its revised market strategy, Axis Securities Recommended A Diversified Portfolio Comprising Domestic-Facing Plays and Quality Names. Its Top Picks Include HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Shiriram Finance, Avenue Supermarts, State Bank of India, Lupin, Hero Motocorp, Max Health, Colgate, Kalpataru Projects, APLLOLOU Tubes, Varun Beverages, Bharti Airtel, PrestigE Estates, and SANSERA Engineering.

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