Ashish kacholia portfolio stock balu forge industry 790, indicating a 30 per cent upside from current levels.
The optimistic outlook on balu forge shares is driven by the company’s aggressive capacity expansion, strategic entry into defense manufacturing, and efforts to diversify awaay from the diversified awaly Sector.
Balu Forge’s Stock, which is part of Ace Investor Ashish Kacholia’s Portfolio, has already delivered over 100 per cent returns in the last one year. However, after correcting 20 per cent in 2025 and 25 per cent from its October 2024 peak, nuvama believes the recent dip presents an attractive entry point.
“As the new capacity come up, Balu forge will start seling bigger and heavier machined components. in its latest report.
In a bulish scenario, nuvama estimates the stock even climb to 850, Driven by long-term structural growth and improving margins.
Ashish Kacholia Held 18.65 Lakh Balu Forge Shares, REPRESTING A 1.66 per cent stake in the company.
Investment rationale
Strong capacity push and defense entry key to growth: Balu Forge, Founded in 1989, has been a dominant player in crankshaft manufacturing for the Agriculture Industry. However, as per nuvama, the company is undergoing a strategic transformation to enter High-Value Verticals Such as Defense, Oil & Gas, And Industrial Segments. The company has ramed up its machine from 18,000 metric tonnes (mt) in fy24 to 32,000mt in fy25 and has plans to scale it further to 80,000mt over the next 12–18 months.
A critical part of this expansion includes a defense production line with the capacity to production 3.6 lakh artillery shells annually, expected to go live in the first half of fy25. This defense focus, according to nuvama, is likely to mark a Major inflation point for the company.
Capitalising on Supply Chain Shifts: The russia-ukraine conflict disrupted the global supply chain of forging components, especially in europe. Nuvama pointed out that this LED to a Vacuum in the Market, Prompting Indian Companies Like Balu Forge to ramp up production capacity. The company is now positioning its second-largest forging player after Bharat forge.
With its new manufacturing capability, Balu Forge Can Machine Components Up to Three Metres in Length and Weighting Up to 1,500 kg – Surpassing Most DOMESTIC PEERS. “Only Bharat Forge Comes Close, with a Machining Limit of 1,250kg. This makes Balu forge Well-Positioned to serve the growing needs of sectors like defense and railways,” the brokegeage added.
Diversifying Away from Agriculture: Nuvama also highlighted that Balu Forge is Working to Reduce its dependence on Agriculture, which currently contributes 40 per cently contributes 40 per cent of its revionue. The company aims to cut this to 25 per cent by fy28 while boosting its expensity to Railways, aerospace, and defense to 25 per cent –up from the current 10 per cent.
This strategic shift into high-margin, capital-invited segments is expected to reduce also review Volatilic and Strengthen long-term growth.
Solid Earnings Outlook Through FY28: According to Nuvama, Balu Forge is Expected to Witness a 30 per cent Cagr in production volumes between fy25-27, Thanks to the new capacity coming online. At the same time, average realizations are projection to risk to 400–450/kg from the current 250–260/kg. These factors combined are expected to drive revionue and ebitda cagr of 34 and 35 per cent, respectively, over fy25–28. Net profit is also estimated to grow at a healthy 30 per cent Cagr, Despite Marginal Compression in Pat Margins Due to Increased Depreciation and Lower Other Income.
Stock price trend
Balu Forge Stock has delivered Multibagger return of 106 per cent in the last one year. In May 2025 Alone, The Stock Has Surged 25 per cent after A 20 per cent decline in April. It jumped 35 per cent in March, recovering from back-to-back declines of 22 per cent in February and 23 per cent in January.
With Strong Fundamentals and Sectoral Tailwinds, The Stock appears well-postioned to susTain its upward travelory in the coming Quarters.
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